Nem Ota nem Alcochete

1. O mundo económico mudou o Verão passado. Maiores dificulades na obtenção de crédito estão aí:

2. Financiamentos de projectos de infraestruturas mais caros e arriscados: One of the asset classes the credit insurers have wrapped is infrastructure. In this market, according to a recent UBS research report, the monolines have wrapped around $20 billion of bonds issued to fund infrastructure and utility assets, including energy transmission and distribution, airports, ports and toll roads.The report, produced by UBS’ infrastructure and utilities analysts, says about 55 per cent of the credit-enhanced debt is held by listed entities, and that it has an average term to maturity of a decade and represents about 36 per cent of the entities’ total debt.The analysts say that the seizing up of credit markets generally means that credit wraps won’t be available for new projects, acquisitions or debt raisings and those entities with lower underlying ratings could be at a disadvantage in competing for assets.The amounts of debt the listed entities will need to refinance over the next 12 months or so are, for each entity facing a refinancing, relatively modest (apart from the various refinancing of what used to be Alinta’s debt). Unless markets return to pre-sub-prime conditions, however, it would appear the entities face higher funding costs and funding of shorter duration than they have become accustomed to.Infrastructure businesses carry relatively high levels of leverage, so a 20 basis point or so increase in their cost of funds – over and above whatever happens to interest rates generally – isn’t immaterial if they permanently lose their ability to rent a AAA credit rate. The valuations of infrastructure-style assets are also quite sensitive to rate movements.
3. Os empresários/gestores de Lisboa, o lobby financiador-betoneiro não nunca teve coragem para se meter em projectos arriscados. Não será agora a excepção. Portanto, mais uma vez, nem Ota, nem Alcochete.

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