Mais TGVs - Somos ricos!

In this paper a cost-benefit analysis of the HST in Spain is carried out based on the best available information about demand and cost with data provided by RENFE and other transport operators, and with the values of time and accidents used by the Spanish Department of Transport. In order to estimate the demand increase, it has been assumed that GDP grows at a 2.5% per year during the lifetime of the project (30 years). Estimated benefits have been tested with a sensitivity analysis extending the life span of the project to 40 years, raising the GDP growth rate to 3%, using shadow prices for labour and increasing generalized costs of train, car and bus in a 25% to allow for differences in quality. The results obtained suggest that the introduction of the HST in Spain was not justified in economic terms in 1987 in the chosen corridor. In the Master Plan of Infrastructures of the Spanish Government, new high-speed lines are planned for the next years. The conclusions of this work suggest that the new projects should be seriously evaluated. In particular, a major effort should be made to undertake demand analysis to lay the foundations of sound traffic forecasting for future projects. Finally, the importance of time savings in HST projects justifies a major research effort in the estimation of the value of time for different types of travellers and different transport modes, in order to improve the socio-economic evaluation of transport projects.

in: Gine´s de Rus, Vicente Inglada,Cost-benefit analysis of the high-speed train in Spain, Ann Reg Sci (1997) 31:175–188

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